CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-06-29T16:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31755/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption spanning from S30E10 to S20W40. Liftoff seen starting at about 2024-06-29T15:09Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 after a data gap from 2024-06-29T13:05Z to 2024-06-29T17:25Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-03T00:39Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.6 - 5.8
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 25.58 hour(s)
Difference: -0.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-01T22:06Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement